Canada's Food Price Report 2026
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December 4, 2025: Canada’s Food Price Report 2026 predicts Canadian families will spend up to $994 more on food next year. One-quarter of Canadian households are considered food insecure.
Halifax, Nova Scotia — Canada’s Food Price Report (CFPR) 2026 forecasts that overall food prices will increase by 4% to 6%. The average family of four is expected to spend $17,571.79 on food in 2026, an increase of up to $994.63 from last year. Food prices are 27% higher than they were five years ago. Annual food price increases are currently within the range predicted in the 2025 report (4%), however meat increased at a faster rate than predicted (5% to 7%). Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario, and Quebec are forecasted to experience food price increases above the national average next year.
This marks the 16th edition of Canada's Food Price Report (CFPR), an annual publication produced collaboratively by Dalhousie University, Saint Mary’s University, University of Prince Edward Island, Cape Breton University, the University of Guelph, Université Laval, the University of British Columbia, and the University of Saskatchewan. Each of these universities contributes to enriching the report's scope and regional expertise. The report provides readers with predictions on estimated annual food expenditures based on age/gender to improve their personal and household budgeting. The 2026 edition of CFPR used one broad, systemized approach to forecasting, employing a suite of predictive analysis models that factored in key regressors (such as climate change and geopolitical information).
“Prices are only one piece of Canada’s complex food industry story. Prices increase year over year but reports like this one help us understand that our food sits in the middle of shifting disputes, behaviours, and policies,” says Dr. Evan Fraser, Director of the Arrell Food Institute, University of Guelph. “It remains critical that we continue to collaborate across Canada to track new trends, because affordable access to food is a matter of security.”
The following key factors significantly affected food prices in Canada this year:
GST/HST Holiday
From mid-December 2024 to mid-February 2025, the Canadian government implemented the All Canadians Act (Bill C-78), which removed Goods and Services Tax (GST) or Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) charges on select product purchases, including most food and beverages. This contributed to a large decrease in food inflation, dropping to -0.6% in January (the first time this has been a negative number in over eight years). In other words, Canadians spent much less on food over this two-month period.
United States Trade Dispute
In early 2025, the new American administration announced tariffs on most goods and energy imported from Canada. The Canadian government implemented substantial counter-tariffs in response. Since coming into effect in March 2025, the tariffs, the food industry has experienced increased costs and price volatility.
Buy Canadian Movement
In a show of national patriotism, many Canadians pledging to keep their dollars at home by purchasing domestically grown and produced products. Retailers assisted by highlighting Canadian goods through special maple leaf and Canadian flag labels. However, research shows that price is still the main driver of Canadian food purchases.
Interest Rate Cuts
To boost economic activity, the Bank of Canada lowered interest rates approximately 75 points throughout 2025, with the latest cut in late October bringing the rate down to 2.5%. Lower rates allow food businesses to access more affordable loans, making expansion and acquisition easier.
Changes to Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP)
The Canadian government has implemented a 10% cap on the number of workers in low-wage positions at a single work location. They have also announced plans to reduce the number of temporary residents from 7% to less than 5% of the population by 2027.
Beef Prices
The price of beef soared in 2025, with a 19% increase in the first quarter alone. This stabilized in later seasons, but prices were still up 23% from the five-year average.
“While all food prices will experience slight increases, meat and beef witnessed the largest increase,” says Dr. Stuart Smyth, Campus Lead, University of Saskatchewan. “Nearly a decade of drought in the leading beef producing area of Canada has resulted in the smallest number of cattle since the late 1980s. Reduced supply and consistent demand creates upward pressure. Canadian beef is high quality and consumers intending to keep buying it will need to be increasingly conscious of optimum purchasing opportunities.”
Food Manufacturing Under Threat
The food manufacturing industry employs over 300,000 people in Canada. In 2025, many large corporations, including Kraft-Heinz and Dr. Pepper Kellogg, restructured and downsized, laying off thousands of workers. The volume of food sold in Canada has reduced considerably and production costs have risen, leading to a 1.9% decrease in food manufacturing growth.
“Food inflation is putting Canadians under a lot of pressure, forcing people to make trade-offs every day. These trade-offs range from switching to a cheaper brand to delaying making purchases altogether,” said Dr. Stacey Taylor, Assistant Professor, Business Analytics, Cape Breton University. “Not only is there an issue with food security, but there is also a lot of concern over nutritional security and being able to afford a healthy diet.”
What can Canadians expect for 2026?
1. Inflation is likely to further decrease, settling around 2% and holding steady. Canadian GDP growth will continue to slow to approximately 1.2% to 1.4%.
2. The US trade dispute is ongoing, although a recent rollback of tariffs on more than 200 agricultural and food products is a promising pivot.
3. The TFWP reforms could lead to labour shortages, and the agricultural industry relies heavily on seasonal workers. This could increase costs for businesses already operating on tight margins, with those extra costs being passed onto customers.
4. The One Canadian Economy Act passed in July 2025 should stimulate trade between provinces, reduce costs, encourage labour mobility, and strengthen domestic competition.
5. The Grocery Code of Conduct becomes fully operational in January 2026. It remains to be seen if it will be effectively enforced. The top four grocery chains control at least 72% of the national market share.
6. As of January 1st, 2026 it will be mandatory for all food that surpasses a pre-determined threshold for sodium, sugar, and saturated fat to include front-of-pack labelling. This will help consumers make better choices and could encourage product innovation. Also, Health Canada mandated that by December 31st, 2025 dairy milk must be fortified with nearly double its current amount of Vitamin D.
7. Chicken prices are set to rise substantially in 2026. Customer demand for chicken has increased due to the higher cost of beef. Canada has strengthened beef import partnerships with Mexico and Australia. This should help stabilize prices, but the squeeze is expected to continue until at least 2027.
8. Increasingly severe and unpredictable weather events around the globe will continue to disrupt agricultural production, creating supply challenges.
“Despite steadier inflation, Canadian families are still feeling the squeeze at the grocery store,” says Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Project Lead, Dalhousie University. “Our forecast for 2026 makes one thing clear: food affordability will remain a major pressure point in the year ahead.”
Media Contacts
For English-language media:
Aaron Misener (University of Guelph), misenera@uoguelph.ca
For French-language media: Janèle Vézeau (Canadian Agri-Food Foresight Institute), janele.vezeau@cafi icpa.ca
Sylvain Charlebois, Project Lead, Faculties of Management and Agriculture, Dalhousie University Sylvain.Charlebois@dal.ca / 902-222-4142 (mobile)
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For more information, please read the complete Canada’s Food Price Report (CFPR) 2026.